Deloitte TMT 2013 Predictions: relevant for Kenya?

 
On January 15th, 2013 Deloitte launched its annual Telecom-Media-Technology predictions. These are Deloitte's view of the key developments over the next 12-18 months that are likely to have significant medium- to long-term impacts for companies in TMT and other industries. Check my tweet for more: @akjdiop (https://twitter.com/akjdiop )

First & foremost, Deloitte TMT 2013 Predictions are a medium to kick start the debate in the ICT community. There are many different views and no one has the perfect crystal ball to guarantee the future. But thinking about the future sometimes makes it a reality….

 

Although a careful look at the local context is always required, one needs to acknowledge that most of these predictions will affect Kenya one way or another. Especially when one considers the ambitions of Kenya as ICT hub for the region. It’ll be more a matter of how fundamental of a revolution versus a careful evolution, these predictions will eventually trigger in the technological, economical & social Kenya (and regional) context. Although still in need of much investments and development, Kenya ICT  is often proclaimed as amongst the best-in-class in sub-Saharan Africa – especially with the m-Pesa as the most referred example.

Now, to some specifics predictions:

·         LTE

The business case for LTE in Kenya might still be a question mark on the short-term. LTE has been around since 2009. For Kenya, it’s more about preparing the ICT sector to the tremendous potential of the technology, especially in terms of bandwidth & speed, compared to 3G. It’s likely to foster the emergence of new competencies, and stimulate products innovation. That will thus contribute to strengthen Kenya ICT entrepreneurship leading position the region.

·         HD TVs

Notwithstanding the cost, one of the main constraints for 4K TVs is the availability of content & broadcasting infrastructure. For Kenya, this might very well be a “bridge too far” for 2013. However just raising the awareness of the local ICT sector will benefit in terms of new capabilities to be required in the near future.

·         Smartphone

My view is that (significant) growth in smartphone penetration & usage is critical success factor for Kenya ICT to keep &/or accelerate its leadership position in the region. This also has a soci-economical impact with the growth of the middle class & digital native youth; to go beyond the “affluent few” classic smartphone users. The availability in Kenya of good 3G mobile infrastructure, an expanding Wifi hotpots (public & private) parks, and continuously exploding fixed broadband internet for residential users, are other enablers supporting the smartphone usage. Mobile internet, often for social media access, is a killer-app for the smartphone usage in Kenya, like in most emerging economies. Furthermore the availability of low-cost smartphone will certainly reinforce this trend. Kenya telecom operators & services providers must embark in a comprehensive campaign for stimulating smartphone penetration & usage. Mass-market voice & SMS prepaid consumers is a loss making segment and is not financially sustainable without the value-added services. Smartphones have intrinsic features that numerous ICT innovative entrepreneurs will certainly embrace and turn into viable business opportunities. Smartphones growth is certainly the key trend which will have the most impact in 2013 upon Kenya ICT competitive position in the region.

 

Let’s continue the conversation and feed in the debate, in cyberspace of course!